U.S. Stock Market Recap - October 1, 2025

Daily Market Moves

U.S. stocks demonstrated remarkable resilience on Tuesday, shrugging off a government shutdown and disappointing employment data to close modestly higher. Despite initial volatility as Washington entered its first shutdown since 2019 and private sector employment unexpectedly declined, investors focused on the potential for accelerated Federal Reserve rate cuts, driving major indices into positive territory by the closing bell.

Major Index Performance

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 46,397.89 (+81.82, +0.18%)

• S&P 500: 6,688.46 (+27.25, +0.41%)

• Nasdaq Composite: 22,660.10 (+68.85, +0.31%)

• Russell 2000: Daily closing data unavailable due to government shutdown data blackout (index recorded best Q3 since 2009)

Drivers & Highlights

Government Shutdown: The federal government entered shutdown at 12:01 a.m. ET, creating uncertainty around key economic data releases including the crucial jobs report. However, traders appeared to bet on a short-lived shutdown, limiting market disruption.

Employment Data: ADP's private payrolls report showed a surprising decline of 32,000 jobs in September, well below the consensus expectation of 40,000 jobs added. This weak data paradoxically boosted markets as investors increased bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Notable Stock Movers: Healthcare stocks led gains with Pfizer (PFE), Merck (MRK), and Eli Lilly (LLY) surging 4-6%. Technology remained strong with Nvidia (NVDA) up over 2.5%. Energy sector saw mixed results with AES soaring ~12% while Occidental Petroleum (OXY) gained modestly on Berkshire Hathaway acquisition talks.

Other Markets

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.10% (-0.04), falling on weak employment data

• U.S. Dollar Index: 97.54 (-0.23, -0.24%), weakening on rate cut expectations

• Gold: Hit fresh record highs, continuing 2025's stellar performance

• WTI Crude Oil: $61.90 (-$0.47, -0.74%), declining amid economic concerns

• Bitcoin: $117,395 (+$2,210, +1.92%), maintaining strength above $115,000

• VIX: 16.68 (+0.40, +2.46%), elevated but contained

Key Takeaway

Markets proved their resilience by turning initial shutdown fears into rate cut optimism, with weak employment data paradoxically supporting equity valuations. The government shutdown's impact on data availability will be closely watched, particularly for Friday's jobs report, as investors navigate between political uncertainty and dovish Fed expectations.